* Republicans in the state assembly are already in a super-minority, 28-14, and Republicans in the state senate are only one seat away from being in a super-minority in 2024.
* In fact, looking at the electoral map of senate seats up in 2024, it looks like a very real possibility that Republicans could lose enough to put them in a super-super-minority – maybe as bad as 16-5.
* That would mean Democrats could pass tax hikes without any GOP votes and/or over-ride a gubernatorial veto of bad Dem bills. Ugh.
* But let’s look at the bright side…
* If it’s possible – maybe even likely –that Republicans are gonna end up in a super-minority in the state senate in ’24, then the only hope is for Republicans to get OUT of the super-minority in
the Assembly so they can block tax hikes or sustain a gubernatorial veto in ’25.
* And the good news is, it’s doable.
* As depressing as it sounds, Republicans in Nevada have already lost just about every assembly seat it can possibly lose.
* The only GOP assembly seat that might be in play in ’24 is District 4 in Clark County, currently represented by Assemblyman Richard McArthur. McArthur is termed out after this cycle and is likely to run for the state senate. So his assembly seat will be an “open” seat.
* District 4 is almost dead even in voter registration, with Republicans having a razor-thin 344 voter advantage and 14,000+ non-partisans. Certainly defensible for the R’s but absolutely in
play for the D’s.
* On the other hand, based on the 2022 results in the newly-redrawn districts, there are six Democrat seats in Clark County and one in Washoe County that could be in play for Republicans next year.
* The one in Washoe County is District 25, which has a 1,200+ voter registration advantage for the D’s and 12,000+ non-partisans with a freshman assemblywoman who will be trying to defend herself for the first time.
* Republicans in Washoe County should recruit a solid Republican candidate for this race and go all-in. Don’t be “fair” and spread out limited resources to other assembly seats in the county which aren’t as doable as District 25. All…or nothing.
* The six assembly seats in Clark County that appear to be in play are…
* District 12. Dem incumbent Max Carter. This one is kinda weird. Dems enjoy a 5,500+ registration advantage; however, the GOP candidate last year only lost by 384 votes (less than 2%) out of more than 20,000 cast.
* I normally wouldn’t consider this seat in play, but the 2022 results show it could be…with the right candidate running the right campaign. Alas, I’m hearing the GOP candidate who did so well last year is now thinking of running for Congress instead of a re-match.
* The others…
* District 21. Dem incumbent Elaine Marzola who won in ’22 with 52% of the vote. D registration advantage: 2,245 with almost 15,000 non-partisans.
* District 29. Dem incumbent Lesley Cohen who won in ’22 with 53% of the vote. D registration advantage: 3,072 with almost 15,000 non-partisans. Republicans would be smart to recruit Rhonda Knightly to throw her hat in the ring for a rematch in this district.
* District 35. Dem incumbent Michelle Gorelow who won in ’22 with 49% of the vote. D registration advantage: 1,556 with almost 16,000 non-partisans. The only reason Gorelow won last year was because loudmouthed nitwit Mindy Robinson ran in this race as a third-party
candidate.
* District 37. Dem incumbent Shea Backus who won in ‘22 with 50.5% of the vote. D registration advantage: 1,443 with over 14,000 non-partisans.
*District 41. Dem incumbent Sandra Jauregui who won in ’22 with just under 52% of the vote. D registration advantage: 3,137 with over 15,000 non-partisans.
* I’d also add Assembly District 9 to the mix…*IF*…Republicans can find a high-quality candidate who can raise a sufficient amount of money. My suggestion would be Drew Johnson, who ran a great race for county commission last year.
* The seat is currently held by Assemblyman Steve Yeager, who won in ’22 with 53% of the vote in a district where Dems have
a 2,885 registration advantage and almost 15,000 non-partisans.
* The reasons why I’d put this on the chess board is the fact that Yeager is the new rookie Assembly Speaker who’s gonna have to deal with (a) a Republican governor and (b) a caucus filled with truly looney, far-left crazies who will be an albatross around his neck in ’24.
* Plus, a serious challenge to Yeager means he’ll have less time and money to help other Democrats.
* Also, remember that it was just ten years ago that Republican Wes Duncan took out the then-Democrat speaker-in-waiting, Marcus Conklin, in a Democrat majority district. So knocking off the opposition party’s leader is not unheard of.
* The key to GOP wins in all these racesis (a) turning out Republicans who haven’t turned out to vote in the last two election cycles and (b) persuading the majority of non-partisans to cast their lot with the GOP.
* And that means running candidates in these districts who don’t run as snarling, fire-breathing right-wingers. We need snarling, fire-breathing right-wingers in REPUBLICAN-majority districts, not swing districts.
* As William F. Buckley said, Republicans need to recruit the most conservative candidate who CAN WIN.
* Hopefully, Nevada GOP leaders learned that lesson from the debacle of the 2022 election cycle in which their predicted “red wave” never developed and gave us all the blues.
* Don’t hold your breath.
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views and
blogs at MuthsTruths.com. His views are his own.
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