* The Dem majority is now 13-8…just one seat short of a 2/3 super-majority, like what they now enjoy in the State Assembly after Republicans lost TWO seats there in November.
* Absent a super-majority in the Senate, Dems shouldn’t be able to pass any tax hike or override any gubernatorial veto – both of which require a 2/3 super-majority.
* However, the danger is in wishy-washy Republicans who regularly vote with the Democrats on various bills and issues. Remember, it was Republicans in the Legislature who gave us the largest tax hike in state history in 2015.
* Gov. Lombardo can’t afford to lose even ONE Republican in the Senate on a tax hike or gubernatorial override. Or he, and we, lose.
* Since the teams are already set for the 2023 legislative session, I’ve already started looking at the line-up of races for 2024.
* Lombardo is going to need more GOP legislators if he’s to make any significant changes during the 2025 session leading into his 2026 re-election campaign.
* But the prospects look dim. Here’s what’s going to be on the menu…
* Republicans will be defending three seats, all of which became more Democrat-friendly after district lines were redrawn following the census last year.
* First-term Sen. Carrie Buck will be defending her Clark County District 5 seat, which has a slight Democrat registration advantage along with a little over 30,000 non-partisans. This is absolutely a “swing” district that Democrats will be gunning for.
* Unfortunately, Buck made herself even more vulnerable – assuming she runs for re-election – by senselessly running for (and losing) the Clark County GOP chair position while in the middle of her first legislative session.
* That fight – including multiple lawsuits – will come back to bite her in the derriere…including the likelihood that a credible Republican will challenge her in the primary. This seat could easily flip to the D’s.
* In Senate District 18 in Clark County, Sen. Scott Hammond is termed out, so this will be an “open” seat. Some are talking about Hammond maybe again running for Congress or getting a spot in Lombardo’s administration after the session.
* The seat has a slight GOP registration advantage of just over 2,000 voters with more than 28,000 non-partisans, making it a very swing district in danger of flipping.
* Word on the street is that Republican Assemblyman Richard McArthur, who is also termed out next year, intends to run for Hammond’s senate seat. Richard’s a strong conservative but has been a weak fundraiser. So he’s not likely to scare any GOP challengers out of a primary.
* In Senate District 15 in Washoe County, Democrats now out-number Republicans by over 5,000 registered voters with another 25,000 non-partisans.
* Incumbent Sen. Heidi Gansert – a bonafide moderate – may be the only Republican who can hold that seat. However, she’s now the GOP’s Senate Minority Leader, a much more partisan and high-profile position.
* Elevating her to the leadership position did no one any favors…except the Democrats.
* To buttress her moderate bona fides, she’ll likely cast some votes along with Democrats as she’s done regularly in the past. But that could well backfire if conservative voters in the district choose to stay home in 2024 or cast their ballots for a third-party candidate.
* Worse, rumors abound that Gansert might run for the U.S. Senate seat in ’24 currently held by Democrat Sen. Jackie Rosen. That would make her “open” state senate seat even more-winnable for the Dems.
* Don’t be surprised to see that seat flip, with or without Gansert.
* On the Democrats’ side, only two state senate seats appear to be in play and flippable for Republicans.
* The first is Senate District 6, currently held by Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro, who barely staved off a fierce challenge by Republican April Becker in 2020. Becker only lost by 631 votes.
* But that was before the new lines were drawn.
* Democrats in this district now outnumber Republicans by over 7,000 voters, with over 28,000
non-partisans. The only way the GOP flips this seat is if it recruits a top tier challenger of the caliber of Becker – or if Cannizzaro chooses not to run for re-election and the seat
becomes an “open” seat.
* The other pick-up opportunity for the GOP is in District 11 in Clark County, currently represented by Sen. Dallas Harris. That district now has a 6,000+ Democrat registration advantage with almost 32,000 non-partisans.
* Flipping this seat for Republicans is probably more doable than flipping Cannizzaro’s seat, but still would require a very solid GOP candidate with enough money and the right strategy in targeting those non-partisan voters.
* So let’s do the math. Even if Republicans hold all three incumbent GOP state senate seats and flip both Dem seats, they’d still be in the minority, 11-10.
* But looking at how badly the Nevada Republican Party handled voter turnout in 2022, and the incompetence of so many GOP consultants in Nevada, I wouldn’t be shocked if Dems hold all of their senate seats in 2024 and pick up all three competitive GOP seats, giving them a
16-5 super-majority in the 2025 session.
* Lord help us.
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
“In the tightly divided House, (Republican Speaker Kevin) McCarthy can only afford
to lose four votes to pass the resolution (to remove Rep. Ilhan Omar from the
House Foreign Affairs Committee) without any Democrats, and Reps. Victoria
Spartz, R-Ind., Nancy Mace, R-S.C., and Ken Buck, R-Colo., have so far signaled
they will vote against it. … Other Republicans who are reportedly undecided on
removing Omar (include) Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., David Valadao,
R-Calif., and Rep. Dave Joyce, R-Ohio.” – FOX News, 1/30/23
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views and
blogs at MuthsTruths.com. His views are his own.