* I have no direct, inside knowledge on this, but I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if Democrat West Virginia U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin launches a late presidential campaign as an independent.
* I’ve heard speculation in DC from serious people about a credible third-party candidate – other than Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – throwing their hat in the ring.
* Manchin’s name wasn’t mentioned specifically, but it makes sense. He’s been a burr under Biden’s butt for a while…and vice-versa.
* Meanwhile, Nikki Haley has not held up well under increased scrutiny following the last debate. Her proposal to ban anonymous speech on social media backfired on her big time.
* The campaign is still picking up the pieces. Not sure they can put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
* So the GOP presidential contest remains a two-person race between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis.
* Columnist Victor Joecks reminds people that Iowa is definitely doable for candidates who trail in November.
* In 2007, Mike Huckabee was in second, polling at 20%. In 2011, Rick Santorum was polling seventh at 4%. In 2015, Ted Cruz was in third place, polling at 15%. All three went on to win Iowa.
* No wonder the Trump campaign wants to cancel the primaries. A loss in Iowa to DeSantis could dramatically reset the entire election and DeSantis is making definite inroads there.
* In the most recent poll, DeSantis was sitting at 17%, compared to Trump’s 44%. That 27-point difference is a far cry from the 50-point difference Trump was trumpeting just a few short weeks ago.
* DeSantis should get an additional boost after next week’s televised debate on FOX New with California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Gavin’s slick, but you can’t put lipstick on pig.
* DeSantis has also benefitted from a pair of recent endorsements from Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and Iowa conservative leader Bob Vander Platts. That Trump and Trump World squealed like stuck pigs following each endorsement tells you they are anything but insignificant.
* Nevada District Court Judge James Wilson has blocked a proposed constitutional amendment/ballot initiative on abortion rights, ruling it violated the single-subject rule, was deceptive, and provided no funding mechanism.
* Huge blow to the abortion-on-demand side which hoped to use the initiative to divide Nevadans and help elect Democrats next year.
* Republicans in the State Assembly need to hold the 14 seats they currently have and flip at least one Democrat seat to get out of the super-minority in the lower house. That could become more complicated if this rumor is true…
* Clark County Republican Party Chairman Jesse Law is said to mulling a run for Assembly District 2 (Clark) to replace incumbent Republican Heidi Kasama…whose now running for Congress.
* That district is almost evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. Nominating the embattled and divisive Law would put that seat in serious play for the D’s, so I hope it’s not true.
* It’s gonna be hard enough to flip one seat, let alone two.
* HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views, and founder of CampaignDoctor.com. You can sign up for his conservative, Nevada-focused e-newsletter at MuthsTruths.com. His views are his own.