* Don’t look now, but the 2024 presidential campaign has officially begun in Nevada.
* Filing opens today. Eligible candidates must choose whether they want to run in the state-run Presidential Preference Primary on February 6th or the Nevada Republican Party’s party-run Presidential Preference Caucus on February 8th.
* Candidates cannot run in both. If they choose to participate in the primary, there’s no filing fee. If they choose to run in the caucus, they’ll have to cough up $55,000 to the GOP to get their name on the ballot.
* Ready for some “inside baseball”?
* Over the last dozen years or so, Nevada Republicans have been complaining that no top statewide elected Republicans have seriously attempted to mimic the “Reid Machine” when it comes to getting its party members elected.
* Former GOP guv’s Gibbons, and Sandoval, along with Sens. Ensign and Heller, were more focused on their own campaigns than building a farm team of future candidates in lower offices.
* Well, there’s a new sheriff in town, literally…Gov. Joe Lombardo.
* And Lombardo is doing exactly what grassroots Republicans have been yearning for over the past two decades. He’s gotten actively engaged in political campaigns up and down the ballot.
* Through various PACs, Lombardo has assembled a team of competent, experienced political professionals focused on winning down-ballot races, and has started building a wide network of similarly-aligned grassroots organizations.
* There is a serious candidate recruitment effort ongoing, including “vetting” of candidates to learn of potential stumbling blocks candidates might trip over on the campaign trail.
* And behind-the-scenes, I can tell you there are candidates who have expressed a desire to run for a certain office who didn’t pass muster after being vetted. They’ve been encouraged to run for other offices or not run at all – much to their chagrin.
* On the other hand, candidates getting the guv’s nod can expect campaign training, campaign advice, campaign management, campaign events with the governor, and campaign dough.
* It’s a page right out of Harry Reid’s playbook.
* With five months still to go before filing for office opens, Lombardo has already endorsed fellow Republicans Heidi Kasama for Congress, April Becker for Clark County Commission and David Brog for State Assembly.
* On Friday, he also threw his support behind John Steinbeck for Senate District 18, a key seat Republicans must hold to have any prayer or staying out of a super-minority in the Senate next November.
* No, silly. Not John Steinbeck, author of “Grapes of Wrath.” John Steinbeck, Chief of the Clark County Fire Department.
* “I’ve known John for decades as a first responder, firefighter, leader, manager, and family man,” Gov. Lombardo said in a statement. “I am proud to offer John my full endorsement.”
* The seat is currently occupied by Republican State Sen. Scott Hammond, who is termed-out. So this will be a tougher seat for the GOP to hold without an incumbent running.
* And here’s where the “Reid Machine” model is going to run into some pushback.
* Republican Assemblyman Richard McArthur – also termed-out for his Assembly seat – had already announced his intent to run for Hammond’s Senate seat. But for whatever reasons, Gov. Lombardo came to the conclusion that Steinbeck has a better chance of holding the seat than McArthur.
* This won’t sit well with some conservatives. McArthur has been a reliable conservative vote in Caron City during his 12 years in the Assembly. But running for a Senate seat – especially one so critical to protecting the governor’s vetoes – is far more extensive and expensive than running for an Assembly seat.
* According to his last campaign finance report, McArthur raised less than $20,000 for his re-election campaign last year. Contrast that with what Hammond raised in his last election in 2021: $297,000.
* In addition, at 80 years of age there are concerns about McArthur’s ability to withstand the rigors of the campaign trail in such a high-profile and critical race, as well as serve out a full 12 years in the Senate.
* Steinbeck, on the other hand, is in his early 50’s.
* Arguably, McArthur is the more experienced and more conservative of the two candidates. But it can also be argued that Steinbeck – especially with the governor’s backing – would be the stronger general election candidate in this “swing” district.
* The same dynamic exists in the 3rd congressional district race. Kasama’s two announced GOP primary opponents are arguably more conservative; however, Kasama has more electoral experience and proven fundraising capabilities for this Democrat-majority district.
* Team Lombardo is focused on winning seats - because majorities get to lead. And that means some of the governor’s endorsements for next year will not be for the most conservative candidate in the race.
* Conservative aren’t going to be happy with some of the governor’s picks. There WILL be some contentious primaries.
* But if you’re one of those who have been clamoring for a GOP version of the “Reid Machine,” that’s where Team Lombardo is headed. And this is one of the byproducts. Gov. Lombardo, unlike GOP guv’s before him, is playing to win, not playing not to lose.
* There are, of course, risks in getting so actively involved in down-ballot races. But no guts, no glory.
* And you have to crack a few eggs to make an omelet.
* CORRECTION: Nikki Haley did NOT cancel her Reno campaign stop on Friday as I reported in the last MTP+. I’m told by multiple people who were there that she gave a great talk.
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
"I understand that one of my residents (Donald Trump) was here earlier saying that he 'turned Florida red'... I just wish, if he 'turned Florida red,' that he wouldn't have turned Georgia and Arizona blue!" – Ron DeSantis at California GOP dinner on Friday
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views, and founder of CampaignDoctor.com. You can sign up for his conservative, Nevada-focused e-newsletter at MuthsTruths.com. His views are his own.