* GAME DAY!!!
* Anybody who tells you they *know* what’s going to happen in the Iowa caucuses tonight is full of sheep dip.
* That said, *polls* show Trump up anywhere from 30-40%. If Trump does win in a blowout, hard to see how he doesn’t get the nomination.
* But the DeSantis camp appears to have a ground organization advantage, which could play big considering the weather reports there.
* And you cannot pooh-pooh the intensity of Trump supporters. More people vote for emotional reasons than rational.
* Chris LaCivita, a senior Trump adviser, told Bloomberg news that they have the numbers they need and “All we need to do is turn them out.”
* That’s why predictions tonight are so hard to gauge. If Trump supporters believe Trump has this “in the bag,” will they brave the cold and show up? We’ll soon see.
* The biggest thing working against DeSantis over the past few weeks has been national polling showing Trump beating Biden. That has undercut a key talking point by DeSantis supporters that RDS is more electable.
* If “soft” Trump voters wavering on the fence feel comfortable that Trump can win the general, they’re more likely to stick with the former president.
* Reported in Politico this morning…
“Iowa Democrats are not taking part in the traditional caucus system, thanks to the Democratic National Committee’s reordering of its presidential nominating calendar. … But that might not stop Democrats from casting a vote on Monday. Caucuses are closed, meaning that a voter must be registered with the party to participate. But voters are allowed to register as a Republican up until the day of the caucus, so Democrats (and unaffiliated voters) can switch their affiliation to vote for a GOP candidate.”
* Same-day registration is bad. The team roster should be set BEFORE game day, not on game day.
* Of all the silly things during our traditional silly season (elections), opponents of Nikki Haley are going after her for wearing a sweater designed by someone who has voiced support for Hamas.
* How many of you know who designed the clothes you’re wearing right now, let alone what the designer’s political opinions are?
* I’m not a fan of Haley’s – especially after she announced she would crack down on anonymous speech on social media on day one if elected – but this is a cheap shot.
* Turning attention to the general election, Sunday’s Las Vegas Review-Journal editorial provided a clear assessment of the situation…
“Having presided over the worst inflation in 40 years; an utter fiasco at the southern border; soaring utility costs for average Americans; trillions in new debt; skyrocketing annual deficits; a massive expansion of the regulatory state; and a world engulfed in conflict, Mr. Biden — his poll numbers at record lows — has opted to change the subject and paint himself as an ardent defender of democracy against the nefarious would-be dictator Donald Trump. … But the notion that Mr. Trump will seize authoritarian powers if he is elected is a fantasy concocted by Democratic strategists trembling over Mr. Biden’s abysmal standing with voters.”
* What they said.
* Along similar lines, columnist Victor Davis Hanson wrote this weekend…
“The left privately knows that its historically unprecedented strangulation of democracy is increasing Trump’s popularity. But like an addict, it cannot quit its Trump fix. … Democrats are tearing apart the country in a manner not seen since the Civil War era – apparently convinced democracy cannot be trusted and so itself must be sacrificed as the price of destroying Trump.”
* What he said.
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
“In the past I voted Democrat, because they were (mostly) the kindness party. But they have become the party of division and hate, so I can no longer support them and will vote Republican.” – Elon Musk
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views, and founder of CampaignDoctor.com. You can sign up for his conservative, Nevada-focused e-newsletter at MuthsTruths.com. His views are his own.